The White House has begun to fear that Vladimir Putin could see his biggest victory over Russia's invasion of Ukraine - Paris.
There is growing concern among President Joe Biden's administration over the decline in voting in the French presidential election, which shows a strong rivalry between incumbent Emmanuel Macron and right-wing rival Marine Le Pen.
A possible victory for Le Pen, sympathetic to Putin, could jeopardize the Western alliance against Moscow, elevate France's position as a leading European power and give some NATO leaders cold feet over staying in the alliance, according to three top officials who were not authorized to hold public talks.
Top US officials are looking beyond the Atlantic for any signs of possible Russian interference in the first round of elections, which will take place on Sunday. Voting suggests Macron and Le Pen are likely to advance to the tournament on April 24 - and that a two-person race may be imminent.
Le Pen, in his third bid for president, has stepped up a few weeks ago, having put down some of his derogatory remarks to focus on the cost of living. Millions in France are suffering as a result of a 35 percent increase in gas prices over the past year.
His departure is of great concern to the White House.
Although Le Pen pretends to be a popular figure, his platform for immigration and Islam is still strong, with plans to close the veil in all public spaces and prevent immigrants from enjoying the same rights as French citizens. His surname, in some circles, is similar to racism and xenophobia - he is now in front of a right-wing, anti-immigrant group founded by his father. And he was a Putin-loving fan, whom he met in Moscow in 2017. Although he has distanced himself from the Russian president since the Ukraine invasion, he has spoken out in sympathy with Putin's view of the war and has rejected other Western allies. tough measures against Russia.
“We want to die? Economically, we will die! ” asked in a recent television interview, when asked if France should cut off oil and gas purchases in Russia. "We have to think about our people."
Le Pen's victory, which was unimaginable, would present the European Union with its biggest crisis since Brexit, which could cause the slow death of many countries and elevate the continent altogether. And in the short term, it will be a major shock to the pro-Ukraine coalition from Warsaw to Washington.
The worst case scenario, according to White House officials, could be that Le Pen could win and oust France from the alliance near Kyiv facing Moscow. Macron's government has already gone well with Moscow, with the French president trying to play the role of mediator in the days before Putin's attack. Since then, France has provided Ukrainian people with weapons and aid, but they have kept quiet about it, refusing to release details about what they send and how much.
Washington fears Le Le in the Élysée will undermine this fragile balance. His victory may prompt some European leaders - some of whom have been fearful of strengthening Russia - to grant bail to the union.
Some Biden allies believe that even if Macron were to hold a minor re-election, it could still have a negative impact on European leaders who may be worried about their political future against populists who are less toxic than Le Pen. That fear may be exacerbated only by the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, which lasts for months and months, leading to higher power rates across Europe, a continent that relies on Moscow for power.
"We have no comment on the presidential race. France is a close ally of the United States and we continue to work with France on a wide range of issues, ”said Adrienne Watson of the National Security Council.
"His election could be a disaster for Europe and across the Atlantic to support Ukraine," said Benjamin Haddad, executive director of the European Center at the Atlantic Council. "He opposes the crackdown on arms embargoes and remains in line with the Kremlin's talks on Ukraine or NATO. do not harass voters. "
Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel was once regarded as Europe's ambassador to Putin, a suit that has now fallen on Macron when he leaves. The night before the war, Macron sat on Putin's famous long table in an attempt to avoid an attack; the two leaders have spoken on the phone several times since then. Macron has been criticized for his involvement with Putin, especially the president and prime minister of Poland.
Back in France, some resentment has grown that Macron - who acquired Le Pen in 2017 - has focused more on international dialogue than domestic concerns and pocketbook problems for a tired country after a two-year epidemic. Macron clashed with protesters known as the "yellow vest", who were initially taxed by gas and then became a wider organization in 2018-19. He has never been able to overcome the stigma of being a "Paris" leader - not France - who has failed to empathize with everyday problems.
That he jumped on the presidential campaign late, confident that working as an international politician would secure a second term, is an example to some voters.
Winning Le Le, many analysts believe, is always impossible. In his run five years ago, voting was tight for a while before the race turned into Macron’s biggest win. And when the territory is reduced to just twice, it may be unpopular with many voters.
But if Macron loses to Le Pen in this one, it could put a big crack in the Atlantic wall across the line built by Biden and his European counterparts. After four years of Donald Trump turmoil that has severely damaged traditional alliances, Biden has set a central goal to ensure Europe can rely on the United States again. He has taken three trips to Europe for his presidency - including last month in Brussels and Poland - to secure that relationship, and has also committed the US to a NATO alliance designed as a protection against Moscow's violence. The Paris-Washington dust-up over the AUKUS deal, which deprived France of a lucrative transit deal with Australia, seems to be far behind Biden and Macron now.
Washington watched the election and shared information about possible Russia-based interventions, from bots to fake accounts, although most of Moscow's cyber efforts are currently focused on sharing propaganda to support war efforts in Ukraine, officials said.
The Western allies have worked hard to secure the imposition of a vise-like economic sanction in Moscow and to provide Ukraine with the necessary military equipment. Russia's invasion has intensified in recent days, and Putin has already been forced to reduce his military ambitions.