(ENB)If it seems like the tropics went from 0 to 60 in the blink of an eye, you're right. It's almost as if someone turned on a light switch.
We now have three systems to track in one week, after a lull that lasted for more than a month.
"This is certainly not unusual," said Dennis Feltgen, public affairs officer at the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
"We typically see a flare-up in June followed by a bit of a lull in July. Large amounts of Saharan dust were a factor. But we are now in mid-August, when water temperatures have warmed across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and there's a parade of disturbances rolling off the coast of Africa every three to four days," said Feltgen.
As the parade lines up, Fred is first in line. A storm that has struggled to survive, Fred is trying to breathe new life in the ninth inning.
"The radar presentation shows that Fred is much more organized this morning and certainly in this warm Gulf water, it will still intensify before landfall," said CNN meteorologist Chad Myers. "Hurricane-force winds tonight are a very real possibility. Prepare for a stronger than expected storm."
Tropical Storm Fred will make landfall along the Florida Panhandle on Monday, bringing with it up to a foot of rain, gusty winds, tornadoes and storm surge.
Fred will be quickly followed by Tropical Depression Grace and Tropical Depression Eight as the tropics heat up, just before the peak of hurricane season.
"How strong the storms become and where they travel is dependent on the environment that surrounds them," said Feltgen. "A mix of competing oceanic and atmospheric conditions generally favor above-average activity for the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season, including the potential return of La Nina in the months ahead."
La Nina typically means a more active season for the Atlantic basin, and forecasters are expecting a return of La Nina this fall, if not sooner.
Another factor is warm ocean water. "We are approaching the warmest water temperatures for the season, plus the northern Gulf of Mexico is two to three degrees above what is normal for right now. Any storm in these warm waters can intensify quickly," said Myers.
All of these factors are pointing toward an active season. "We're coming off the record-breaking 2020 season, when almost every mile of the US Gulf Coast and US East Coast was under a watch or warning sometime during that season," said Feltgen.
With more than half of the 2021 hurricane season ahead, people are urged not to become complacent.